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Thursday, February 4, 2010

Births/Deaths Model Adjustments and the distortion of Payrolls data PART 2

Following on from my January 7 post on the gross incompetence or outright manipulation (I know what I think it is, you can make up your own mind though:) of the BLS Payrolls data I note today a blog from Mish Shedlock discussing the BLS's revision of 824,000 jobs added by their flawed Births/Deaths model in 2009.

To recap from my last post on this topic we discussed that in January 2009 there was a 359,000 revision as the Birth's/Death's model had overestimated the number of new businesses created during 2008 compared to those that went under. This time around there has been a 229% in the number of jobs they have overestimated into existence throughout 2009.

Does this look like green shoots to you? I should think not.

I also discussed the coincidence of a 20% decline in the DOW following the release of last years "revisions". Since yesterday's announcement we have seen a 2.6% decline in the DOW and since my January 7 post the DOW is down about 6%.


I am only drawing the comparison of the DOW decline out of interest more than anything else. There are a wide range of issues that will contribute to a continual slide in the DOW. My other blogs will attest to that. The BLS is just a representation of the misplaced optimism many people have in the positive effect the global government's stimulus packages are allegedly having in bringing the world out of recession.

Long USD/Short US Equity markets in my opinion remains the trade du jour for 2010.

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